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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Stockwatch: Players, prospects who've moved up include Josh Lowe, AJ Smith

May 05, 2023

Another month in, it's once again time to take inventory of the risers and fallers for Dynasty leagues.

Remember that the evaluations here are slightly different from redraft leagues. The focus is on the long term, which requires a more deliberate approach. One wrong move could reverberate for years to come.

Case in point: many of the risers in this edition were top prospects not so long ago. Dynasty leaguers who waited out the early struggles are reaping the benefits now. Dynasty leaguers who bailed for a more immediate payoff are missing out.

A+/AA/AAA: 2-1, 1.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 33 IP, 12 BB, 45 KMajors: 2 1/3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

The 20-year-old's stock has risen so much that he suddenly finds himself in the big leagues, having climbed all the way from High-A in about a month's time. Next, Smith-Shawver is expected to step into the starting rotation after throwing 2 1/3 scoreless innings in his debut Sunday. Things have escalated so quickly that it's hard to know what we're working with here, but the Braves have had a remarkably low miss rate on prospects recently, which should inspire confidence. Smith-Shawver didn't start pitching until his senior year of high school and was still so new to it last year that he was walking everyone in sight, but with improved control this year, his fastball/slider combo looks pretty devastating.

AAA: .333 BA (234 AB), 8 HR, 9 SB, .923 OPS, 11 BB, 41 K

Mauricio has long been on the fringes of top-100 lists as a toolsy prospect with intriguing power potential, but as recently as this year, Baseball America had him with only a 40-grade hit tool. How different things look today. The 22-year-old has maintained a batting average over .330 basically from the drop, combining premium exit velocities with newfound contact skills, and of course the over-the-fence potential remains. He could stand to have more patience at the plate, but it won't stop him from stepping into the Mets lineup soon.

AA: 4-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 49 1/3 IP, 19 BB, 83 K

The Dodgers appear to have struck gold yet again, this time with their sixth-round pick from two years ago. The 23-year-old has been an unstoppable force at Double-A. The 1.64 ERA and 15.1 K/9 probably tell you all you need to know, but I'll also point out that Sheehan hasn't allowed more than three hits in any of his 11 starts and boasts a Spencer Strider-like 20 percent swinging-strike rate. In fact, his best weapon is much like Strider's, a high-90s fastball with the sort of vertical approach angle that creates the illusion of "rising" on its way to the plate.

AA: .310 BA (184 AB), 11 HR, 3 SB, .960 OPS, 15 BB, 31 K

Kjerstad was the second overall pick in the 2020 draft, going in between Spencer Torkelson and Max Meyer, which you might think gives his stock little room to improve. But he was a divisive pick in the first place given his unconventional swing and questionable hitting profile (beyond offering raw power), and his stock became even more strained when he was diagnosed with myocarditis and missed his first full professional season. He was mostly good in his debut last year but has taken things to another level this year at Double-A Bowie. The power has been as advertised, but most impressive is the 15.0 percent strikeout rate, which should clear up question about his hit tool.

AA/AAA: 4-3, 2.63 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 48 IP, 23 BB, 70 K

A 6-foot-6 righty who came over from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade last July, Brown has emerged as a likely rotation piece for the Cubs, equipped with two knee-buckling breaking balls and a mid-90s fastball that plays up because of his long reach. His stock reached its highest point in mid-May, when he had just moved up to Triple-A Iowa and was darn near pitching a shutout for the entire season, but he's had some trouble finding the strike zone since the move. He does already have two double digit-strikeout efforts at Iowa, though, and continues to trend upward overall.

A+/AA/AAA: Majors: AAA: AA: AA: AA/AAA: